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經濟學人:美國大選如何影響股市(2)

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Investors appear to be especially keen on downside protection around this election. In September Cameron Crise, a strategist at Bloomberg, wrote that VIX futures markets have "never had an event risk command this sort of premium". Even more unusually, VIX futures prices are elevated not just around the date of the election, but for the months between the vote on November 3rd and the inauguration on January 21st.

在這次大選期間,投資者似乎尤其熱衷於“下檔保護”。今年9月,彭博(美國財經資訊公司)策略師卡梅倫·克里茲寫道,VIX期貨市場“從未有過事件風險導致如此高的溢價”。更不尋常的是,VIX期貨價格不僅在大選前後上漲了,在11月3日投票到1月21日就職典禮之間的幾個月裏也在上漲。

There are plenty of reasons for investors to worry about post-election chaos: the coronavirus pandemic means an enormous number of voters will opt to avoid crowded polling stations this year and send their ballots in by post instead. These votes can take longer to count, raising the prospect of a period without a clear winner. Even once a victor is declared, a slew of lawsuits may follow. The uncertainty is exacerbated by President Donald Trump's suggestion that postal ballots may be fraudulent, and his reluctance to say that he will accept the election result.

投資者有很多理由擔心選舉後的混亂局面:新冠肺炎這一流行病意味着今年將有大量選民會選擇避開擁擠的投票站轉向郵寄投票。這些選票可能需要更長的時間來計票,增加了一段時期內獲勝者不明的可能性。即使結果出來了,隨之而來的也可能是一系列的訴訟。唐納德·特朗普總統暗示郵寄選票可能是偽造的,而且表明自己將不接受選舉結果,使得不確定性加劇。

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The nearest guide to market reaction in such a situation would be to look at the contest between Al Gore and George Bush in 2000, which was too close to call on election day and involved recounts and lawsuits. Markets dropped by 1.6% the day after the election as it became clear there was no decisive winner. The S&P 500 sank by more than 8% by the end of the year—though at least some of that probably re-flects the beginnings of the dotcom bust.

要了解市場在這種情況下的反應,最直接的方法就是看看2000年阿爾·戈爾和喬治·布什之間的競爭。當時在選舉日,雙方勢利難分,還涉及重新計票和訴訟。大選後的第二天,由於尚未確定獲勝者,市場下跌了1.6%。到今年年底,S&P 500下跌了超過8%——儘管其中至少有一部分可能再現了互聯網泡沫破裂之初的情形。

A happier scenario for investors—and citizens more broadly—would see a clear victor emerging on election day. And it may be that investors have begun to think this has become more likely than they did mere days ago. Though the news that Mr Trump had been diagnosed with covid-19 sent VIX futures higher on October 2nd, by the 7th futures maturing in November, December and January had dropped below the level they had reached after the first presidential debate on September 29th. That might be thanks to a flurry of polls putting Joe Biden, Mr Trump's Democratic challenger, even further ahead. As the campaign moves into the home straight, investors are betting on less, rather than more, chaos.

更能讓投資者和廣大公民感到欣慰的結果是,獲勝者在選舉日當天就被選出。或許投資者們已經感覺到了較之前幾天這種可能性的加大。雖然特朗普被診斷為新冠的消息在10月2日推高了VIX期貨,但到11月、12月和1月到期的7個期貨價格已經低於9月29日第一次總統辯論之後的水平,這大概得益於一項結果為“特朗普的民主黨競爭者喬·拜登領先”的民調。隨着大選接近尾聲,投資者的押注混亂並沒有愈演愈烈,相反在逐漸平息。

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chaos ['keiɔs]

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n. 混亂,無秩序,混沌

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democratic [.demə'krætik]

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adj. 民主的,大眾的,平等的

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victor ['viktə]

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n. 勝利者 Victor: 維克托(男子名)

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strategist ['strætidʒist]

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n. 戰略家,軍事家,策士

 
inauguration [in.ɔ:gju'reiʃən]

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n. 就職典禮,落成典禮,開幕儀式

 
decisive [di'saisiv]

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adj. 決定性的

 
uncertainty [ʌn'sə:tnti]

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n. 不確定,不可靠,半信半疑 (學術)不可信度; 偏差

 
enormous [i'nɔ:məs]

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adj. 巨大的,龐大的

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campaign [kæm'pein]

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n. 運動,活動,戰役,競選運動
v. 從事運

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contest ['kɔntest,kən'test]

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